Sunday, October 24, 2004
One Issue Voters
I've been thinking about this in the run-up to the election and several things seem to be apparent.
There are two kinds of one-issue voters; Conservative and Liberal. I think Liberal one-issue voters are far more reliable to the Democratic Party than Conservative one-issue voters are to the Republicans.
Over the last several weeks, I've read a bunch of conservatives writing about how they can't vote for Bush. Of course, the easiest example is the pro-2A crowd.
Instead of being happy the AWB is dead, a lot of gun nuts have denigrated Bush for not coming forth with a sworn veto. Now I agree, as previously stated, that the veto pen has never left George's desk. That is regrettable.
But the AWB is dead.
If you look at polls, some 60% of gun owners favored the ban. Close to 80% of the general public did. Regardless of absolutism, the fact that it is dead in the face of numbers like these is somewhat incredible. DeLay killed it while Bush had to invest no political capital in the thing, and came out looking mainstream. It may be a bitter pill to swallow for some of us, but this was an extremely popular law. I don't believe that the House was lost to Democrats in 1994 because of this bill, as the NRA loves to claim. If that many gun owners supported it, it was mainstream; centrist; rational crime control, etc.
Now I will condemn the lot of us. If the sunset was supported by any kind of majority, it would have been easy for Bush to say he would not support it's renewal.
Those of us who understood how stupid the law was, failed to convince even 10% of our fellow gun owners. This law went into effect 6 years before Bush took office, but so many of you are ready to blame him for it, when it was our community that failed to make our case.
We can bounce this around between people who agree, but, even with the leveling influence of a Republic, the majority rules. We just failed to convince the public at large given 10 years to deal with it. We failed, Bush didn't.
So, to the larger point, all of you are going to sit home or vote for Batshit Badnarik, while eveyone who is pro-gun control, anti-war, pro-choice...pick your poison, is going to vote for Kerry.
This is why he might win. And when everything goes to pot in 3 years, Conservative one-issue voters will be squawking the loudest, even though they are the ones that made the situation possible.
There are two kinds of one-issue voters; Conservative and Liberal. I think Liberal one-issue voters are far more reliable to the Democratic Party than Conservative one-issue voters are to the Republicans.
Over the last several weeks, I've read a bunch of conservatives writing about how they can't vote for Bush. Of course, the easiest example is the pro-2A crowd.
Instead of being happy the AWB is dead, a lot of gun nuts have denigrated Bush for not coming forth with a sworn veto. Now I agree, as previously stated, that the veto pen has never left George's desk. That is regrettable.
But the AWB is dead.
If you look at polls, some 60% of gun owners favored the ban. Close to 80% of the general public did. Regardless of absolutism, the fact that it is dead in the face of numbers like these is somewhat incredible. DeLay killed it while Bush had to invest no political capital in the thing, and came out looking mainstream. It may be a bitter pill to swallow for some of us, but this was an extremely popular law. I don't believe that the House was lost to Democrats in 1994 because of this bill, as the NRA loves to claim. If that many gun owners supported it, it was mainstream; centrist; rational crime control, etc.
Now I will condemn the lot of us. If the sunset was supported by any kind of majority, it would have been easy for Bush to say he would not support it's renewal.
Those of us who understood how stupid the law was, failed to convince even 10% of our fellow gun owners. This law went into effect 6 years before Bush took office, but so many of you are ready to blame him for it, when it was our community that failed to make our case.
We can bounce this around between people who agree, but, even with the leveling influence of a Republic, the majority rules. We just failed to convince the public at large given 10 years to deal with it. We failed, Bush didn't.
So, to the larger point, all of you are going to sit home or vote for Batshit Badnarik, while eveyone who is pro-gun control, anti-war, pro-choice...pick your poison, is going to vote for Kerry.
This is why he might win. And when everything goes to pot in 3 years, Conservative one-issue voters will be squawking the loudest, even though they are the ones that made the situation possible.
